Nov
19
By Paolo von Schirach
November 19, 2011
WASHINGTON – US Marines to be deployed in Darwin, in the very North-West of Australia. Not much of a fighting force; but more than a just a token gesture. This announcement comes in the context of a strong reaffirmation of a strategic partnership between The US and Australia emphasised in the course of a speech by President Obama to the Australian Parliament, part of his state visit to Canberra. And Australia was one stop in a broader Obama Asian tour that included a an Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Honololu and a state visit to Indonesia.
Obama Asia Tour: reassure Allies, warn China
And why are strong US-Australia security ties needed? Because of China. China has grown economically but also militarily in the region. China’s military spending is increasing and there is an effort underway to develop a “blue water” navy, a naval force well in excess of anything necessary to defend the country. There have been well publicized incidents at sea all centered on territorial waters disputes with neighbors. Japan is worried, and so are the Philippines, Vietnam and others. More ominously, China is investing a great deal in developing anti ship capabilities. Accurate land based missiles capable of sinking a US carrier may have the effect of forcing the US Navy to stay clear of China’s coastline, therefore making the South China Sea a “Chinese Lake”.
China’s hegemonic strategy?
To some it would appear that mighty China’s strategy is to deter America, (“stay away from our shores“), while at the same time inditimidating neighboring countries, so that that they will accept an implicit subordination to Beijing, this way achieving some sort of Asian “Finlandization”. In other words, as lesser neighbors of a giant, better comply with its wishes, otherwise there may troubles.
America reassuring Allies: ‘We are here to stay”
But smaller Asian countries concerns about China’s assumed hegemonic design are America’s opportunity to reassert its role as the guarantor of Asia’s security. Since 1945 the Pacific has been an “American Lake”. Obama’s trip to Asia and Australia was therefore a chance to tell sympathetic audiences that America, while drawing down in Iraq and Afghanistan, will not cut its Pacific committments. And Obama’s November 17 address to the Australian Parliament, while not bellicose, was unambiguous in reaffirming both America’s intention to stay in the Pacific and the willingness to devote whatever budgetary resources to the US military, so that America will have the means to meet this pledge.
Obama’s address to the Australian Parliament
“Our new focus on this region –stated President Obama– reflects a fundamental truth — the United States has been, and always will be, a Pacific nation. Asian immigrants helped build America, and millions of American families, including my own, cherish our ties to this region. From the bombing of Darwin to the liberation of Pacific islands, from the rice paddies of Southeast Asia to a cold Korean Peninsula, generations of Americans have served here, and died here — so democracies could take root; so economic miracles could lift hundreds of millions to prosperity. Americans have bled with you for this progress, and we will not allow it — we will never allow it to be reversed.
Here, we see the future. As the world’s fastest-growing region — and home to more than half the global economy — the Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that’s creating jobs and opportunity for the American people. With most of the world’s nuclear power and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress.
As President, I have, therefore, made a deliberate and strategic decision — as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with our allies and friends. (bold added)
Let me tell you what this means. First, we seek security, which is the foundation of peace and prosperity. We stand for an international order in which the rights and responsibilities of all nations and all people are upheld. Where international law and norms are enforced. Where commerce and freedom of navigation are not impeded. Where emerging powers contribute to regional security, and where disagreements are resolved peacefully. That’s the future that we seek.
Now, I know that some in this region have wondered about America’s commitment to upholding these principles. So let me address this directly. As the United States puts our fiscal house in order, we are reducing our spending. And, yes, after a decade of extraordinary growth in our military budgets — and as we definitively end the war in Iraq, and begin to wind down the war in Afghanistan — we will make some reductions in defense spending.
As we consider the future of our armed forces, we’ve begun a review that will identify our most important strategic interests and guide our defense priorities and spending over the coming decade. So here is what this region must know. As we end today’s wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority. As a result, reductions in U.S. defense spending will not — I repeat, will not — come at the expense of the Asia Pacific. (bold added)
My guidance is clear. As we plan and budget for the future, we will allocate the resources necessary to maintain our strong military presence in this region. We will preserve our unique ability to project power and deter threats to peace. We will keep our commitments, including our treaty obligations to allies like Australia. And we will constantly strengthen our capabilities to meet the needs of the 21st century. Our enduring interests in the region demand our enduring presence in the region. The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay. (bold added)
Indeed, we are already modernizing America’s defense posture across the Asia Pacific. It will be more broadly distributed — maintaining our strong presence in Japan and the Korean Peninsula, while enhancing our presence in Southeast Asia. Our posture will be more flexible — with new capabilities to ensure that our forces can operate freely. And our posture will be more sustainable, by helping allies and partners build their capacity, with more training and exercises.”
American intentions clear, future capabilities uncertain
There you have it. Clear words. Nobody should count America out. There will be larger economic engagements in the Pacific Region, while America’s stated intention is to continue in its role as guarantor of regional peace and security. This is not an “anti China” posture. But it is a warning to Beijing, in case China might have thought that it would be easy to fill a power vacuum created by an imminent American withdrawal.
Long term, of course, this strong commitment to Asia is contingent upon America’s economic vitality. If America stagnates and the fiscal crisis does not get resolved, it is good bye to this level (700 billion a year) of defense spending. The Pacific as an “American Lake” assumes a powerful US Navy. Less money, smaller Navy.
Obama’s strategy is fundamentally correct. But it is premised on an American economic rebound that cannot be taken for granted. If America fails to perform, the US Marines may have a very short stay in Darwin.
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