Feb
22
By Paolo von Schirach
February 22, 2012
WASHINGTON – Whatever happens with the Republican nomination process, the winner is unlikely to truly inspire America. For different reasons, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are all very weak candidates. (I shall not even try to assess Ron Paul, who lives all by himself in a world of his own in which America renounces war, while it abolishes the Federal Reserve. For sure his libertarian principles have some appeal, but it is and will be a very narrow appeal).
Weak Republican candidates
Romney wants to run for CEO of America Inc. Look, to bring to the table proven business and managerial skills is an asset. But being president is a different matter. A president has to be able not only to identity the right priorities but then he must inspire and unite a variety of disparate constituencies, so that real momentum can be built behind those priorities. Romney seem to lack the ability to inspire and convince others that he is steadfast and sincere. And if he cannot convince his party that he should be the nominee after four years of campaigning, and lavish spending on TV commercials, hard to believe that he would be able to get much more support among the millions of independents whose votes he will need in a general election.
Gingrich is an ebullient idea man, but constantly running here and there. He is disorganized and in the end a far less impressive intellect than he would like the rest us to believe. He is arrogant and petulant and his recent past as lobbyist contradicts his efforts to present himself as an immaculate conservative fighter. Should he get the nomination, he would become an easy target for the Obama campaign. I cannot see him getting elected under any scenario.
And then we have Rick Santorum, the sanctimonious Pennsylvania preacher. Unlike overly cautious Romney and mercurial Gingrich, Santorum exudes deep an sincere belief in what he says. And if this is charm it is also his biggest problem. Santorum appeals only to a segment, albeit significant, (30 to 40% in recent polls), of a minority party (the GOP) destined to remain so, if it does not dramatically broaden its reach beyond middle aged, middle class, white people.
I have no doubt that Santorum is sincere when he talks about restoring his favorite moral values. I am sure that he would really like to see a more Christian (in his own understanding) and more devout America. But his ardent beliefs, be they about abortion, gay marriage, and now birth control are hopelessly out of sync with the vast majority of Americans. Whatever he says about the economy or national security, Santorum has made his moral and social values crusade his trade mark issue. And it is really hard to believe how these divisive moral values issues, embraced only by a minority (however vocal) within the Republican Party will ever get enough traction nationally to get Santorum elected president.
Obama will be re-elected
And so, by default, if nothing else, we are back to president Barack Obama. Obama will be re-elected. Besides, aside from the solid advantage of an incumbent running against a weak opponent, the general context is improving somewhat and so Obama’s stock is rising. And the media undoubtedly help him. Since nowadays a bad economy that Obama failed to turn around is accepted by most media as the ”new normal”, even a little bit of good news is presented by analysts as a triumph and thus a credit for this enlightened White House. Indeed, these days the American media are cheering 8.3% unemployment as great news. 8.3% unemployment, three years into a pitiful recovery, is –and should be described as– terrible news. But now we are in different times. The media say that the economy is “improving” (sure enough 8.3% is better than 9% unemployment) and the president’s ratings are up.
Scenario number one: bold leadership
So, the Republicans are very unappealing, the economy is doing a bit better, and Obama gets re-elected. Here are two possible scenarios. In the first one, that I would call good but fanciful, Obama, now free of any election worry, decides to be a statesman. And so he will assemble the best talent, on a truly bipartisan fashion, with the goal of putting together coalitions that will do at least four things: 1) a package of pro-growth economic policies, 2) a credible public spending reform plan, 3) a comprehensive tax reform package, and 4) a solid energy strategy. A fifth issue that would require strong buy-in at the state and local level is truly aggressive public eduction reform, something that would however imply a serious confrontation with the teachers unions.
Difficult but possible
These are admittedly huge issues. However, they are complicated not because they are unknown but only because of deep political divisions. Time and again in the last couple of years we have seen that the intelligent moderates in both parties agree on most of what should be done. We have seen this in the excellent work done by the “Debt Commission” co-chaired by Erskine Bowles (Democrat) and Alan Simpson (Republican) in 2010. We have seen a parallel effort on budgetary reform conducted by Alice Rivlin (Democrat) and Pete Domenici (Republican) around the same time. We have seen a variety of intelligent pro-growth policies put together at the state level by Democrats in Colorado and by Republicans in Indiana, among others. Arne Duncan, president Obama’s Secretary of Education has done much more than most of his predecessors in trying to turn around public education. He is a Democrat respected by Republicans. Could he god after the teachers’ union in an Obama second term? Of course he could. But he would need political cover.
Which is to say that bipartisan agreement is possible. But it is true that divisions now are very deep and entrenched. For this very reason, it would take a president willing to risk everything to go beyond party lines and unite warring factions behind sensible policies. But this would have to be a new Barack Obama.
Scenario number two: more of the same
In his first four years Obama did not do any of this. His signature issue, health care reform, was passed in the most arrogantly partisan fashion, with only a couple of votes to spare in the House. This is certainly not the way to pass historic legislation with such broad reach. And most recently the president decided to opt for a populist “tax the rich” approach that resonates well with the base but is mostly about politics and little about policy.
Likewise, his belated (February 22) proposal to reform corporate taxation is deeply suspect. Tax reform is complicated issue any day of the week. For this president to put it forward at the end of February, with a national election in November, while the parties are deeply divided on almost everything, and while the Republican candidates have nothing nice to say about him indicates that this is not a serious proposal. Obama knows that this corporate tax plan will go nowhere. But, just like his jobs program, this becomes campaign material. He can say that he tried his best; but the mean spirited Republicans (as usual) rejected his constructive ideas. If this approach continues in an Obama second term, expect nothing good.
Of course it is possible for the Democrats to win everything: White House, House and Senate. But in that case the desire to engage in serious reforms may become even less urgent, with consequent damage for the country.
To lead or not to lead?
So, here is the deal. If Obama wants to be a great president, then he should forget about the narrower interests of the constituencies he has cultivated and that will no doubt re-elect him in November. He would work instead on long term policy solutions aimed at restoring fiscal soundness and US economic competitiveness. If Obama wants to be a just good Democrat in good standing with minorities, single mothers, unionised workers, public sector employees, teachers and students with student loans, then he will do more of the same.
And so, lacking a new pro-growth impetus, a weakened America will continue to do so-so, or poorly, while entitlements will not be reformed and the national debt will continue to grow, with clear implications for America’s ability to maintain a credible military and lead. Not a great future for a country that used to be the ”Land of Opportunity” and the world’s economic engine.
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